ANZ: January Labour Market Weakens But No Need To Panic

In lieu of the labour market report ANZ note “continue to expect the labour market will remain very tight through 2023. Labour demand remains very strong. There were 444,200 job vacancies nationally in November (around double pre-pandemic) and almost 90% of firms couldn’t hire enough workers in Q4 according to NAB. Strong seasonal factors look to have contributed to the weakness in January.”

• “The ABS reported “more people than usual with a job indicating they were starting...work later in the month,” after the survey reference period of 1 January to 14 January. This aligned with the lower number of people entering employment this year compared with the past few years in January.”
• “We expect a return to solid employment growth in February. The ongoing recovery in population growth via net migration will be a tailwind as it improves the matching of workers to vacant jobs and lifts demand growth, all else equal. We do not expect unemployment to rise rapidly.”