ANZ: No Spending Cliff, But Some Mixed Signals

ANZ “compared daily average ANZ-observed spending in the first 13 days of August to the daily average in July, in 2022 and 2019, to view current spending against the most recent year without lockdowns. Total spending momentum in August was solid in 2022, though there are mixed signals across discretionary categories. Daily spending excluding petrol was 1.7% higher in August 2022 than July, suggesting stronger momentum than in the same period in 2019 which was up 0.6%. We are waiting for clear evidence of a slowdown. Large savings buffers, low unemployment and the popularity of fixed rate mortgages will delay the full impacts of higher interest rates and inflation on household spending. We are watching the data closely for evidence of a slowdown.”