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ANZ note that "the rupiah is one of......>

DOLLAR-IDR
DOLLAR-IDR: ANZ note that "the rupiah is one of the worst performing Asian
currencies in July to date, as Bank Indonesia's debt monetisation plan and
prospects for further monetary policy easing weighed on the currency. While
recent US dollar weakness has provided the rupiah with some respite, we are
heading into a period which has historically seen the rupiah weaken consistently
since 2004. The reason for the rupiah's poor performance in the month of August
could be due to the repatriation of accumulated dividend payments by foreign
investors. But with dividend payments this year down by a fifth compared to last
year, the pressure from dividend repatriation may not be as strong compared to
previous years. We remain constructive on the rupiah, as the currency is
under-valued relative to our fair value estimate, and we see foreign investor
concerns over debt monetisation easing. This should pave the way for a pick-up
in bond inflows given the yield attractiveness, which tend to lead to a
strengthening in the currency. But we will need to get past the August
seasonality effect first."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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