- ANZ ON UPCOMING Q3 CPI: "Q3 headline....>

AUSTRALIA: - ANZ ON UPCOMING Q3 CPI: "Q3 headline CPI will be boosted by the

sharp increases in electricity and gas prices as well as annual rises for

property rates and charges and the tobacco excise. A seasonal increase in

international airfares will also add to CPI. Our daily tracking of petrol prices

suggests a 2.5% q/q decline in prices in Q3, which will subtract 0.1ppt from

CPI. The average of the underlying inflation measures is forecast to have risen

by 0.4% q/q in Q3, weaker than the previous quarter, but still sufficient to

lift annual growth a touch. There appears to be some residual seasonality in the

trimmed mean measure, with a step-down in the Q3 readings in each of the past

three years. As such, a result in line with our expectation probably overstates

the weakness in core inflation. Indeed, we continue to believe that core

inflation has stabilised, and look for a very gradual lift over the year ahead."