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UK GDP a tenth higher than expected driven higher by services

UK DATA
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  • Looking into the details of UK GDP (which surprised to the upside by one tenth on the M/M print - note that the previous months were not open to revision), the upside was driven by services which were 0.3ppt higher than expected at 0.2%M/M.
  • As expected the biggest drag within services was from "wholesale and retail trade" (as seen in the soft retail sales numbers). The upside contributions were largely from "information and communication" as well as "professional scientific and technical activities".
  • The downside surprises to GDP were seen in IP (due to weak manufacturing - with the other IP subsectors growing). And within manufacturing specifically manufacturing of pharmaceuticals and food products were the weakest.
  • Construction also surprised to the downside, driven by 7/9 subsectors.
  • GBPUSD is very, very marginally higher than pre-data, but only a single figure number of pips.
  • Overall, little policy impact from this print with next week's CPI print much more important.
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  • Looking into the details of UK GDP (which surprised to the upside by one tenth on the M/M print - note that the previous months were not open to revision), the upside was driven by services which were 0.3ppt higher than expected at 0.2%M/M.
  • As expected the biggest drag within services was from "wholesale and retail trade" (as seen in the soft retail sales numbers). The upside contributions were largely from "information and communication" as well as "professional scientific and technical activities".
  • The downside surprises to GDP were seen in IP (due to weak manufacturing - with the other IP subsectors growing). And within manufacturing specifically manufacturing of pharmaceuticals and food products were the weakest.
  • Construction also surprised to the downside, driven by 7/9 subsectors.
  • GBPUSD is very, very marginally higher than pre-data, but only a single figure number of pips.
  • Overall, little policy impact from this print with next week's CPI print much more important.