Arizona Supreme Court Decision On Abortion Could Impact General Election

The Arizona Supreme Court today upheld an 1864 law that bans nearly all abortions. The ruling, the most restrictive abortion law in a state which isn't solidly Republican, could have major impacts on the 2024 presidential election and down-ballot in key Arizona races for the Senate and House.

• President Biden said in a statement: "Millions of Arizonans will soon live under an even more extreme and dangerous abortion ban... This ruling is a result of the extreme agenda of Republican elected officials who are committed to ripping away women’s freedom."
• Axios notes: "The 4-2 opinionsets up a high-stakes battle over a possible November ballot measurethat would protect abortion in Arizona up to 24 weeks of pregnancy."
• The New York Times notes: "The stakes could be significant for Arizona after former President Donald J. Trump said this week that he thought abortion rights should be left up to the states to decide."
• Of the six closest swing states in the 2024 presidential election, Arizona is one of two where former President Donald Trump currently holds a polling advantage.
• According to the 2022 Midterm Election blueprint, the decision is likely to boost Democrats across the state by increasing turnout and transforming races into referenda on abortion.
• The Washington Post notes on the transformative political environment since the 2022 SCOTUS decision to roll back Roe v Wade: "In 2020, according to a careful academic study, abortion pushed independent voters toward the GOP by 4.5 percent. In 2022, the issue pushed them toward Democrats by 13 percent."