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ASIA FX: SEA FX Falter, PHP & MYR The Weakest Performers

ASIA FX
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Some resilience was evident for South East Asia FX in the first part of Tuesday dealings, but this has given way to a firmer USD backdrop as the session has progressed. 

  • The weaker yuan, which has fallen 0.40% against the USD is weighing on broader regional sentiment. China equity markets are down to the lunchtime break as speculation continues around fresh fiscal stimulus measures.
  • USD/MYR has pushed above 4.3000 for the first time since mid September. Historically the ringgit has had a reasonable correlation with CNY moves.   
  • USD/IDR was initially lower, but from 15535 we sit back at 15565 now, little changed for the session. Early positive sentiment reflected policy continuity, with current Finance Minister Indrawati asked to be part of the new administration. The BI is expected to hold rates steady tomorrow.
  • PHP is off 0.45% to be the weakest performer in the EM Asia space so far today. We were last in the 57.70/75 region. Cross-asset headwinds are in play for PHP, like they are elsewhere in the region. The BSP is expected to cut rates by 25bps tomorrow.
  • USD/THB is also higher, last near 33.40, off nearly 0.20% in baht terms. The BoT is seen on hold tomorrow, albeit with risks of a dovish outlook. 
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Some resilience was evident for South East Asia FX in the first part of Tuesday dealings, but this has given way to a firmer USD backdrop as the session has progressed. 

  • The weaker yuan, which has fallen 0.40% against the USD is weighing on broader regional sentiment. China equity markets are down to the lunchtime break as speculation continues around fresh fiscal stimulus measures.
  • USD/MYR has pushed above 4.3000 for the first time since mid September. Historically the ringgit has had a reasonable correlation with CNY moves.   
  • USD/IDR was initially lower, but from 15535 we sit back at 15565 now, little changed for the session. Early positive sentiment reflected policy continuity, with current Finance Minister Indrawati asked to be part of the new administration. The BI is expected to hold rates steady tomorrow.
  • PHP is off 0.45% to be the weakest performer in the EM Asia space so far today. We were last in the 57.70/75 region. Cross-asset headwinds are in play for PHP, like they are elsewhere in the region. The BSP is expected to cut rates by 25bps tomorrow.
  • USD/THB is also higher, last near 33.40, off nearly 0.20% in baht terms. The BoT is seen on hold tomorrow, albeit with risks of a dovish outlook.