Asia-Pacific Week Ahead

     JAPAN

     The highlight of the week will be Japanese gross domestic product for the

July-September quarter, due Wednesday. GDP is expected by economists to post a

modest 0.4% rise on quarter, or an annualized 1.6%, as a rebound in net exports

offset a slump in consumer spending caused by bad weather.

     Looking ahead, economists expect the moderate economic recovery to continue

in the October-December quarter, led by a possible rebound in private

consumption and solid business investment.

     Bank of Japan

     Monday, 6:45 pm in Zurich (1745 GMT, 2:45 am JST Tuesday): BOJ Governor

Haruhiko Kuroda speaks at the Swiss Institute for International Studies,

University of Zurich.

     Data

     Monday, 8:50 am JST (2350 GMT): The BOJ releases the October corporate

goods price index (CGPI), the key indicator of producer prices. The MNI median

forecasts: +3.1% on year for the 10th straight y/y rise vs. +3.0% in September;

+0.1% on month for the second straight m/m rise vs. +0.2% in September.

     Wednesday, 8:50 am JST (2350 GMT): The Cabinet Office releases preliminary

July-September GDP. The MNI median forecast: +0.4% on quarter, or an annualized

1.6% (forecast range: +0.2% to +0.4%, or an annualized +0.6% to +1.7%), the

seventh straight quarter of growth after +0.6%, or an annualized 2.5% in

April-June.

     Japanese Government Bonds

     Japanese government bond yields may rise temporarily on profit-taking

following the recent yield declines, but a sharp rise in JGB yields is unlikely

due to investors' bargain-hunting. The 10-year yield fell to 0.020% last week

for the lowest level since September and the 40-year yield dropped to 0.985%,

the lowest since June 27.

     The 10-year JGB yield is expected to move between 0.015% and 0.050% this

week against the bank's target of around zero. It rose to 0.080% on Oct. 3 for

the highest level since July 26 after falling to -0.010% on Sept. 8, the lowest

since Nov. 15, 2016.

     Monday: BOJ outright purchase operations for JGBs with remaining life of

1-3 and 3-5 years expected.

     Tuesday: The Ministry of Finance to auction 2.2 trillion of 5-year bonds.

     Wednesday: The MOF to auction Y2.3 trillion of 1-year Treasury discount

bills. BOJ outright purchase operations for JGBs with remaining life 1-3, 3-5

and 5-10 years expected.

     Thursday: The MOF to auction Y1.0 trillion of 20-year bonds and Y4.4

trillion of three-month Treasury discount bills.

     Friday: BOJ outright purchase operations for JGBs with remaining life of

1-3, 3-5, 10-25 and more than 25 years expected.

     CHINA

     The key to the week will be the release of economic data for October to

determine whether strong third quarter growth continued into the first month of

the fourth quarter. Analysts will be looking in particular to see how big an

impact the government's new anti-pollution campaign is having on production and

investment.

     Data

     Any day from Monday to Wednesday, time uncertain: People's Bank of China is

due to release new loan, M2 money supply and total social financing data for

October. Bank loans are expected to have increased CNY733 billion, down from

CNY1.27 trillion in September, according to the median of an MNI survey. Total

social financing is predicted to increase CNY1.1 trillion, down from the CNY1.82

trillion gain the previous month. M2 money supply is expected to have risen 9.2%

year-on-year, the same rate as in September.

     Tuesday at 10:00 CST (02:00 GMT): Retail sales and industrial production

data for October and fixed-asset investment data for January-October is due to

be released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Retail sales growth rate

is expected to have risen 10.4% year-on-year, up from the 10.3% increase in

September, according to the median of an MNI survey. Industrial production is

estimated to have grown 6.3%, down from the rise of 6.6% the month before.

Fixed-asset investment is predicted to have growth 7.4% in the first 10 month of

the year, slowing from a gain of 7.5% in the first nine months.

     AUSTRALIA

     The highlight of the week will be October labor market data to be released

Thursday. Ythe RBA's quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy released last Friday

showed its prime concern is the subdued pace of wage growth.

     Data

     Tuesday 9:30 am AEDT (2230 GMT): ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer sentiment data for

the week ended Nov. 12, which will be watched a bit closely after the fall below

long-run average last week. 

     Tuesday 11:30 am AEDT (0030 GMT): National Australia Bank's business survey

for October to be released. Apart from conditions and confidence, data on the

retail sector and employment will be important.

     Wednesday 10:30 am AEDT (2330 GMT): Westpac-Melbourne Institute to release

consumer sentiment index for November. The risk is that sentiment will fall

below 100 again given reports of more slowing in the housing market and the

RBA's worries about wage growth, which would likely offset the positive from the

rising share market.

     Wednesday 11:30 am AEDT (0030 GMT): Wage data for the third quarter to be

released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The MNI median forecast is for

a slightly acceleration to +0.6% q/q and +2.2% y/y from +0.5% and +1.9% in the

second quarter, due mainly to the effect of rise in the minimum wage.

     Thursday 11:00 am AEDT (0000 GMT): Melbourne Institute to release inflation

expectations indices for November.

     Thursday 11:30 am AEDT (0030 GMT): Labor market data for October to be

released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, with the expectation of another

month of jobs growth. The MNI median forecast is for a 21,000 increase in

employment, but the unemployment rate to remain stable at 5.5% and participation

rate at 65.2%.

     RBA:

     Monday, 9 am AEDT (2200 GMT): RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle to speak on

"Business Investment in Australia" at the 2017 UBS Australasia Conference in

Sydney.

     Wednesday, 6 pm AEDT (0700 GMT): RBA Assistant Governor (Economic) , to

give the Stan Kelly Lecture 2017 in Melbourne.

     NEW ZEALAND 

     It's a light week with no major data releases due. 

     RBNZ 

     No major data or event are due from the RBNZ. 

--MNI BEIJING Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: john.carter@mni-news.com

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