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At Best Limited Further Moderation In BOS/CSCE Inflation Expectations

CANADA

Business Outlook Survey: Further moderation in quarterly BOS but monthly BLP figure see less disinflationary progress

  • Qtrly BOS 2Y: 3.17% in Q4 from 3.29% in Q3, still lowest since 3Q21
  • Mthly BLP 1Y: 3.4% in Dec from 3.5% in Nov and 3.43% in Sep.
  • Mthly BLP 2Y: 2.7% in Dec from 2.8% in Nov and 2.73% in Sep.
  • Mthly BLP 5Y: 2.5% in Dec from 2.6% in Nov and 2.5% in Sep.

Consumer Survey: Progress stalls in 1-2Y measures but at least decline for longer-term.

  • 1Y: 4.91% in Q4 from 5.03% in Q3, little progress vs 2019 av 2.3%
  • 2Y: 3.94% in Q4 from 4.04% in Q3, stalled progress vs 2019 av 2.9%
  • 5Y: 2.62% in Q4 from 2.75% in Q3, fresh low since question started mid-2015

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