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US DATA: Atlanta Fed GDP Estimate Pares Recent Rise

US DATA
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The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for Q4 has ticked down to 3.1% from 3.3% prior, following the release of solid retail sales data offset by weak industrial production and a slight downwrad revision to business inventories. 

  • While solid control group retail sales saw the PCE estimate tick higher to 3.3% (up 0.1pp), and residential investment to 4.7% (up 0.7pp), multiple other categories saw declines including equipment and nonresidential structure investment, while inventories are once again seen dragging on growth.
  • The FOMC's median forecast for real GDP in Q4 is still set to rise in this week's projections from the 2.0% (Y/Y) eyed in September. The penultimate GDPNow update of the year comes Thursday after the FOMC, following PCE, GDP, and existing home sales data.
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The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for Q4 has ticked down to 3.1% from 3.3% prior, following the release of solid retail sales data offset by weak industrial production and a slight downwrad revision to business inventories. 

  • While solid control group retail sales saw the PCE estimate tick higher to 3.3% (up 0.1pp), and residential investment to 4.7% (up 0.7pp), multiple other categories saw declines including equipment and nonresidential structure investment, while inventories are once again seen dragging on growth.
  • The FOMC's median forecast for real GDP in Q4 is still set to rise in this week's projections from the 2.0% (Y/Y) eyed in September. The penultimate GDPNow update of the year comes Thursday after the FOMC, following PCE, GDP, and existing home sales data.