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Atlanta Fed GDPNow At 2.3% For First Q4 Estimate, Inventories To Drag

US DATA
  • The first estimate for Q4 from the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker comes in at 2.3% annualized.
  • Whilst obviously very early in the quarter, it gives an idea of where momentum lies heading into the quarter.
  • It follows the 4.9% annualized from the Q3 advance release published yesterday (for which the GDPNow was tracking 5.4% vs analysts consensus of 4.5%).
  • A big part of the projected slowdown is from the change in private inventories, very tentatively seen dragging -0.55pps on the quarter having added +1.3pps to Q3 [right hand chart below shows Q3 contributions for scale].
  • Consumer spending meanwhile is seen adding 2.04pps after 2.7pps in Q3.

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