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Attention turns to the FOMC

BONDS
  • A more steady afternoon trading session for EGBs and Bund.
  • The German 10yr is close to flat, down 12 ticks at the time of typing, with all the attention turning to the awaited FOMC, with an expected 75bps hike set to be delivered.
  • US data, showed stronger than expected shipments of capital goods non-defense ex-aircraft, which beat consensus at +0.7% M/M (+0.3% expected) and a revision to prior (+1.0% M/M from +0.8%).
  • A Narrower-than-expected trade deficit (-$98.2B vs -$104.0B prior and -$103.0B expected), suggest that 2Q GDP estimates will be revised upward tomorrow.
  • Peripheral spread saw more widening of the BTP/Bund spread, after the Italian downgrade from S&P.
  • The spread tested 240.48bps, the June and 2022 high, and widest level since 07/05/20, which has so far held, now at 236.5bps.
  • Gilt underperforms Germany and markets saw continued widening of the Gilt/Bund spread once again today, by another 2.8bps.
  • The spread is clear above 100.00bps, at 101.8, and would see next upside target at the April high, 106.10bps.
  • Looking ahead, focus is on the FOMC.
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