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Attention turns to the US CPI

BUNDS
  • No surprises in seeing very tight and low volumes overnight for Bund and Treasuries, with long end strips pretty much flat going into the European session.
  • Although Bund has fully reversed the whole of the US NFP sell off on short cover and positioning, US Tnotes (TYM4) is still well short of those levels as investors look for the ECB to be the first to move out of the ECB, BoE, Fed on cutting their rates.
  • Resistance in Bund is at 132.70, followed by the 133.08 area, and 133.24.
  • Small support moves up to ~131.90 initially.
  • Today sees, Italy retail sales, Portugal final CPI, but the main focus will be on the US CPI/real earnings, while Wholesales inventories will be final reading.
  • FOMC minutes are also due.
  • SUPPLY: UK £4bn 2027 (equates to 11.7k Gilt) should have limited impact on Gilt, German €2.5bn 15yr (equates to 32.6k Bund) could weigh into the bidding deadline, Portugal 10s, 15s, 20s, should have limited impact, US sells $39bn of 10yr reopening.
  • SPEAKERS: Fed Bowman (voter), Goolsbee (non voter).

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