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AU STIR Scales Back Year-End Easing

STIR

While providing confirmation that the RBA Board was set to evaluate the case for a pause at the April meeting, yesterday’s March Minutes failed to extend the recent softening.

  • Moreover, the Board’s acknowledgement that “core inflation remained too high” and “further tightening of monetary policy would likely be required” appears to have encouraged, aided by global STIR developments overnight, a further reassessment of the 45bp of easing by year-end that had been priced earlier in the week.
  • At the time of writing, RBA dated OIS was 7-11bp firmer across meetings beyond April with 29bp of easing priced by year-end. April meeting pricing is flat.

Figure 1: RBA Dated OIS: Today Vs. Pre-RBA Minutes

Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg


Figure 2: RBA Dated OIS: Today Vs. Pre-RBA Minutes


Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg

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