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AUD Dips as CPI Slips to Slowest in 18 Months

FOREX
  • The greenback posts early gains across G10, rising against all others, albeit within a tight range. The late USD sell-off Tuesday triggered by the soft JOLTs print has largely held, with EUR/USD remaining above 1.0860 and USD/JPY at 146.50. Trajectory later today will likely continue to be swung by market-implied Fed rate expectations, with a further 25bps hike by the November meeting now just 50% priced.
  • Antipodean currencies are the underperformers so far Wednesday, with July CPI from Australia falling well short of expectations: 4.9% vs. Exp. 5.2% - the lowest inflation print since February last year. AUD/USD looks to 0.6401 for direction, a break below which opens the cycle low and bear trigger of 0.6365.
  • Focus for the Wednesday session ahead turns to the national print for German inflation later today. Regional measures have been mixed, with North-Rhine Westphalia, Brandenburg and Baden Wuerttemberg reading accelerating from July, while Hesse and Bavaria slowed. The national print is expected at 6.3%, from 6.5% prior for the harmonized figure.
  • US ADP employment change crosses later today, with markets expecting 195k jobs added. The secondary reading for US Q2 GDP also crosses, expected unrevised at 2.4%. Pending home sales are also set for release. There are no notable central bank speakers.
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