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AUD/GBP: Lowest Level Since March 2022

AUD

AUD/GBP has printed a fresh cycle low and its lowest level in over a year at GBP0.5427.

  • Rate expectations continue to diverge pointing to further possible downside in the cross. Yesterday's BOE rate decision leaned hawkish (at least vs. expectations) as the bank hiked rates 25bps and signalled an openness to more hikes (albeit with expectations for a sharp moderation in inflation later this year). Whilst the RBA is openly touting the potential for a pause at their next meeting.
  • The cross fell off session highs and extended losses in the NY session, before risk-off flows saw a fresh low printed in the Sydney session.
  • We are now down over 6% from the 2023 high, which was registered in early February.
  • The next downside target for bulls is GBP0.5338 a fibonacci projection; a break through here opens the 2022 low at GBP0.5202.
  • Bulls first look to break the 20-Day EMA at GBP0.5521.
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