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AUD Partially Pares Monday Advance Ahead of Q4 CPI Data

AUSTRALIA
  • The Australian dollar has moderately weakened on Tuesday, giving back some of the prior day’s advance ahead of both the key domestic inflation data and the FOMC meeting, both scheduled tomorrow. EURAUD stands 0.35% higher, giving up around half of the move lower at the start of the week.
  • CPI figures will be a crucial input into deliberations at next week's RBA meeting. As a reminder, the central bank retained its tightening bias in December, with the final guidance paragraph unchanged word-for-word and the RBA firmly in wait-and-see-mode. Bloomberg consensus is expecting headline CPI to print +0.8% q/q and 4.3% y/y versus +1.2% and 5.4% prior. Trimmed Mean CPI is expected to show +0.9% q/q and 4.3% y/y versus +1.2% and 5.2% prior.
  • Front-end pricing was unaffected, however, it is also worth noting that a McCrann article reported on the collapse in consumer spending proving that Australia’s economy is teetering on the edge of a recession, and it’s time for the RBA to act.
  • AUDUSD remains in consolidation mode. From a trend perspective, a bearish theme continues to dominate, and the latest pause appears to be a flag - a bearish continuation pattern. A resumption of weakness would open 0.6500, a Fibonacci retracement and the next objective. Clearance of this level would further strengthen the current bearish theme. Initial resistance is at 0.6627, the 50-day EMA.
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