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Pullback Exposes Support

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BSP Raises Key Rate By 50bps To 3.75%

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German curve is bear flattening

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Maintains This Week’s Bullish Theme

POLAND

EURPLN Approaching 50DMA Resistance

BONDS

Bund and Euribor are falling

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US DATA
US DATA: Aug retail sales +0.1% vs +0.4% expected by analysts and +0.7% 
expected by markets, while ex-mtr veh +0.3% vs +0.5% expected, with 
notable declines in both vehicle sales and clothing sales pulling down 
the headline numbers. July sales were rev higher. 
- Vehicle sales -0.8% compared with expectations for a smaller decline 
by analysts.
- Gas station sales +1.7%, providing the key offset, as sales would have 
been -0.1% ex. gas. Looking deeper, Aug sales ex. mtr veh and gas +0.2% 
and +0.1% ex auto, bldg mat, gas and food services, suggesting 
underlying growth slowed after a very strong July.
- Building materials sales flat, while food services +0.2%, clothing 
sales -1.7% (largest drop since Feb 2017), and department stores -1.0%.  
- Through two months of 3Q, retail sales were 5.3% above the 2Q average 
at an annual rate, with the sharp gain in July the key factor. Ex. 
mtr veh, retail sales were +7.1% from the 2Q average, and were +4.7% ex. 
autos, bldg materials, gas, and food services.

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