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August Diesel Imports to Europe Fell to the Lowest Since March

DIESEL

Europe’s diesel imports fell 30% m-o-m in August to the lowest since March 2023 at 0.84mbpd according to BNEF based on Vortexa data, driven by a sharp decline in arrivals from India.

  • Gasoil Sep-Oct and Dec-Jan 2024 gasoil time spreads remained rangebound while the 2023 winter months time spreads (Oct-Nov and Nov-Dec) rallied over the past month, indicating a tighter winter diesel market. East-West gasoil flows could improve as the arbs widened.
  • Russian refinery runs decreased in August to 5.55mbpd with diesel exports at 1.09mbpd in the month. Russia product exports will likely fall as refinery intake usually declines in September & October due to seasonal maintenance. Russia’s federal subsidy cut to the refineries starts this month which hurts margins.
  • US Gulf Coast (USGC) diesel exports to Europe dropped as the arbitrage weakened. US raised its diesel exports to Latin America but faces stiff competition from Russia. US product exports might decline as the fall refinery turnround season nears.


Source: Bloomberg

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