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August Serial Futures Gap Bid, Waller Cools 100Bp Hike Odds

FED FUNDS FUTURES
Tamping down on mkt pricing in chance of 100bps hike at the end of the month following Wed's "major league" CPI.
  • Wide range for FFQ2 serial futures, gapped to 97.57 high after trading around 97.49 on the heels of Fed Gov Waller comments that he supports another 75-basis point increase at the July 26-27 FOMC meeting, bringing the fed funds rate to 2.25% - 2.5%.
  • Waller judges that level is close to neutral," he said. "I think that estimates of the real federal funds rate should be based on the expected policy rate one to one and a half years in the future."
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