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Aussie Awaits RBA Decision Next Week

AUD

AUD/USD resumed losses on Thursday, as broader demand for the greenback drove the pair lower. Although the rate rallied into the London morning, its gains were capped at $0.7162, and it pulled back into the WMR fix.

  • The rate last deals at $0.7100, little changed on the day. Bears now look for a breach of Feb 4 low of $0.7052, which would clear the way to key support from Jan 28 low of $0.6968. Bulls need a jump above Apr 25 high of $0.7261 before setting their sights on the 50-DMA at $0.7322.
  • As a reminder, the RBA announce its next monetary policy decision on Tuesday. Consensus looks for a 25bp hike to the cash rate, an outcome fully priced by the swaps market. Implied probability of a controversial pre-election rate hike was boosted by this week's CPI data, which provided evidence of runaway inflation that calls for urgent policy response.
  • On the data front, focus moves to CoreLogic House Price Index, Melbourne Institute Inflation & ANZ Job Ads (Monday), retail sales (Wednesday) as well as trade balance & building approvals (Thursday).
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AUD/USD resumed losses on Thursday, as broader demand for the greenback drove the pair lower. Although the rate rallied into the London morning, its gains were capped at $0.7162, and it pulled back into the WMR fix.

  • The rate last deals at $0.7100, little changed on the day. Bears now look for a breach of Feb 4 low of $0.7052, which would clear the way to key support from Jan 28 low of $0.6968. Bulls need a jump above Apr 25 high of $0.7261 before setting their sights on the 50-DMA at $0.7322.
  • As a reminder, the RBA announce its next monetary policy decision on Tuesday. Consensus looks for a 25bp hike to the cash rate, an outcome fully priced by the swaps market. Implied probability of a controversial pre-election rate hike was boosted by this week's CPI data, which provided evidence of runaway inflation that calls for urgent policy response.
  • On the data front, focus moves to CoreLogic House Price Index, Melbourne Institute Inflation & ANZ Job Ads (Monday), retail sales (Wednesday) as well as trade balance & building approvals (Thursday).