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AUSSIE BONDS: Cheaper, US Tsys Open Weaker, Strong Nov-28 Auction

AUSSIE BONDS
RegionGlobalBulletAPACFixed Income BulletsAustraliaMarkets

ACGBs (YM -6.0 & XM -6.5) are weaker and near Sydney session lows on a data/newsflow light day. 

  • The local market has been pressured by cash US tsys, which are 2-3bps cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session, extending Friday’s modest cheapening.
  • Cash ACGBs are 5-6bps cheaper, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +20bps.
  • The latest round of ACGB Nov-28 supply saw strong demand metrics, with the weighted average yield printing 1.11bps through prevailing mids and the cover ratio jumping to 4.5214x from 3.0900x previously. A higher outright yield and a 3/5 yield curve at its steepest since November 2023 supported the bid. The recent deterioration in sentiment towards global bonds failed to temper enthusiasm.
  • Swap rates are 5-6bps higher.
  • The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing -1 to -7.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 2-5bps firmer for 2025 meetings. A cumulative 4bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • (AFR) “Treasury and the Reserve Bank of Australia are making contingencies for the economic fallout from the result of the US presidential election, with everything from the potential firing of Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell to huge tariffs on China being analysed.” (See link)
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ACGBs (YM -6.0 & XM -6.5) are weaker and near Sydney session lows on a data/newsflow light day. 

  • The local market has been pressured by cash US tsys, which are 2-3bps cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session, extending Friday’s modest cheapening.
  • Cash ACGBs are 5-6bps cheaper, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +20bps.
  • The latest round of ACGB Nov-28 supply saw strong demand metrics, with the weighted average yield printing 1.11bps through prevailing mids and the cover ratio jumping to 4.5214x from 3.0900x previously. A higher outright yield and a 3/5 yield curve at its steepest since November 2023 supported the bid. The recent deterioration in sentiment towards global bonds failed to temper enthusiasm.
  • Swap rates are 5-6bps higher.
  • The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing -1 to -7.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 2-5bps firmer for 2025 meetings. A cumulative 4bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • (AFR) “Treasury and the Reserve Bank of Australia are making contingencies for the economic fallout from the result of the US presidential election, with everything from the potential firing of Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell to huge tariffs on China being analysed.” (See link)