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AUSSIE BONDS: Mixed, US Tsys Heavy On Friday Despite US Jobs Miss

AUSSIE BONDS
RegionGlobalBulletAPACFixed Income BulletsAustraliaMarkets

ACGBs (YM +2.0 & XM -0.5) are mixed despite US tsys finishing with a bear-steepener on Friday. The US 10-year yield closed 10bp higher at 4.38%, a new high for the move that began in September.

  • US Nonfarm payrolls increased 12K in October, well below the consensus expectation of a 101K gain. Hurricanes, strikes, and a shortened survey period were contributing factors.
  • This week, the markets will focus on Tuesday’s US election and Thursday’s FOMC decision.
  • The week’s attention locally will be firmly on the RBA decision, forecasts and press conference on Tuesday. With rates unanimously expected to be left at 4.35%, the meeting statement is likely to be scrutinised for any changes in tone.
  • Cash ACGBs areflat to 3bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential 8bps tighter at +15bps.
  • Swap rates are flat to 3bps lower, with the 3s10s curve steeper.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing flat to +4.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 2-4bps softer across 2025 meetings. A cumulative 3bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Today, the local calendar will see MI Inflation and ANZ-Indeed Job Advertisements data alongside AOFM’s planned sale of A$700mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2027 bond.  
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ACGBs (YM +2.0 & XM -0.5) are mixed despite US tsys finishing with a bear-steepener on Friday. The US 10-year yield closed 10bp higher at 4.38%, a new high for the move that began in September.

  • US Nonfarm payrolls increased 12K in October, well below the consensus expectation of a 101K gain. Hurricanes, strikes, and a shortened survey period were contributing factors.
  • This week, the markets will focus on Tuesday’s US election and Thursday’s FOMC decision.
  • The week’s attention locally will be firmly on the RBA decision, forecasts and press conference on Tuesday. With rates unanimously expected to be left at 4.35%, the meeting statement is likely to be scrutinised for any changes in tone.
  • Cash ACGBs areflat to 3bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential 8bps tighter at +15bps.
  • Swap rates are flat to 3bps lower, with the 3s10s curve steeper.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing flat to +4.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 2-4bps softer across 2025 meetings. A cumulative 3bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Today, the local calendar will see MI Inflation and ANZ-Indeed Job Advertisements data alongside AOFM’s planned sale of A$700mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2027 bond.