Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
The RBA’s official rate is currently the lowest among the $-bloc central banks at 4.35%, compared to 5.33% for the FOMC, 4.75% for the BoC, and 5.50% for the RBNZ.
- However, the difference between the RBA’s and the BoC’s policy rates is expected to narrow to +15bps this week, if market pricing is accurate.
- The BoC is widely anticipated to cut its policy rate by another 25bps to 4.50% at this week’s meeting, with the markets now pricing in around a 90% chance of a cut, up from less than 50% two weeks ago.
- Moreover, looking ahead to year-end, the OIS market expects the official rate in Canada to fall below that of Australia. If this occurs, it would be the first time since 2018.
- Even more interestingly, when we look 12 months forward using 3-month swap rates 1-year forward (1Y3M), the market now expects the RBA’s official rate to be the highest in the $-bloc for the first time since 2013.
Figure 1: $-Bloc 1Y3M (%)
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok