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Awaiting ECB Decision and Labor Data With Eye On Tomorrow’s NFP

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsy yields sit just 0-1bp lower on the day, with 2s10s consolidating yesterday’s bull flattening at -45bps. Today sees further labor data before tomorrow’s payrolls report, along with potential spillover from today’s ECB decision.
  • TYM4 has lifted for back almost unchanged on the day at 111-16+ (+ 01) on further solid cumulative volumes of 300k. Yesterday’s high of 111-23 marked a clear break of resistance at the 50-day EMA, highlighting a bullish reversal with further resistance then seen at 111-27 (50% retrace of the Feb 1 – 23 bear leg).
  • Data: Challenger job cuts Feb (0730ET), Weekly jobless claims (0830ET), Labor productivity/ULCs Q4 final (0830ET), Trade balance Jan (0830ET), Household net worth Q4 (1200ET), Consumer credit Jan (1500ET)
  • Fedspeak: Fed Chair Powell Testimony to Congress (1000ET), Mester on economist outlook (1130ET), Mester on CNBC (1315ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $95B 4W, $90B 8W bill auctions
  • Other: President Biden State of the Union Address (2100ET)

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