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Back Close To 1.0800, Rate Differentials Widen Post RBA

AUDNZD

AUD/NZD is dealing a touch above the $1.08 handle after the RBA hiked the cash rate 25bps.

  • Some of the dovish tones from the statement (removing the need for hikes in the months ahead and peaking inflation pressures) has weighed on the RBA outlook.
  • Terminal rate pricing for the RBA is now into ~4%, having sat a touch below 4.15% pre-rate decision.
  • AU NZ Rate differentials have also widened in the aftermath of the monetary policy announcement, with the 2-Year rate differential now sitting at -144bps. We are still above Dec lows for this spread, but the trend is clearly moving against the cross.
  • For AUD/NZD, bears look to break the $1.08 handle, opening up the 2023 low at $1.0708.

Fig 1: AU NZ 2 Year Rate Differential vs AUD/NZD Spot


Source: MNI/Bloomberg

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