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Back Near Post Jobs Low, Technical Support Holds

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures gapped lower after higher than expected March employment data showed job surge of 303k vs. 214k est, 275k prior down revised to 270k.
  • Balance of data: Private Payrolls (232k vs 170k est); Unemployment Rate (3.8% vs. 3.8% est vs. 3.9% prior), Average Hourly Earnings MoM (0.3% vs. 0.3% est), YoY (4.1% vs. 4.1% est), Labor Force Participation Rate (62.7% vs. 62.6% est).
  • Jun'24 10Y futures gapped to a post-data low of 109-15 (-21; yield 4.3996% high) - near initial technical support of 109-09.5 (Apr 03 low). Futures dew short cover/position squaring support that saw TYM4 climb back to 109-30 in late morning trade before settling back near session lows after the Feb Consumer Credit came out lower than expected at $14.1B vs. $15B, prior down-revised to $17.684B from $19.495B.
  • The strong jobs data sapped rate cut expectations in the near term: May 2024 at -5.7bp vs -9.8% pre-data w/ cumulative -1.4bp at 5.312%; June 2024 at -52.4% vs -59.6% earlier w/ cumulative rate cut -14.5bp at 5.181%. July'24 cumulative at -24.9bp vs -28.9bp earlier, Sep'24 cumulative -41.3bp vs. -45.1bp earlier.
  • Slow start to next week, focus on CPI and March FOMC minutes on Wednesday, PPI on Thursday.
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