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Back To A 0.5600 Handle, Amid Broad USD Gains

NZD

NZD/USD couldn't sustain +0.5800 levels from late yesterday, we pulled back to 0.5640, a nearly -3% turnaround (last 0.5665). Recent cyclical lows under 0.5600 are now back in focus (0.5565 on Sep 28). The currency has only outperformed SEK and NOK within the G10 space over the past 24 hours.

  • The NZD suffered amid broad based USD gains, the DXY is up nearly 1% to 112.25. US yields continued to recover (2yr to 4.25%). The NZ-US 2yr spread (government bonds) is making fresh lows closer to -20bps. The domestic data calendar is empty today. There may be some spill over from the RBA Financial Stability Report.
  • Fed speak remained hawkish overnight, while payrolls print tonight. Risk aversion was evident in the equity space, with the VIX climbing back above 30%. Aggregate commodity indices were close to flat.
  • Implied vols have rebounded. The 1 week back above 18%, while the 1 month is now to 16.15%, both measures are below recent highs though.
  • The AUD/NZD cross is comfortably back above 1.1300, rebounding from sub 1.1250 late yesterday. The rebound ran out of steam ahead of 1.1350.
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