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Free AccessBaht Underperforms As China's Commitment To Zero-COVID Bodes Ill For Tourism
Overnight demand for the U.S. dollar has generated a tailwind for spot USD/THB early doors. The rate has now unwound its losses posted on Tuesday in reaction to the news re: China loosening border controls. It last changes hands +0.120 at THB35.320.
- Note that Chinese President Xi yesterday lauded his flagship dynamic Zero-COVID strategy as most "economic and effective" for China and vowed to stay the course. His hard-line stance bodes ill for the recovery of Thailand's tourism industry, China being the largest pre-pandemic contributor of foreign visitors.
- From a technical perspective, topside focus falls on THB35.573, which limited gains on Jun 24. A breach of that cyclical high would confirm the strength of underlying uptrend, shifting focus to Jan 9, 2017 high of THB35.799. Bears need a drop under Jun 16 low of THB34.830 before taking aim at the 50-DMA at THB34.558.
- The World Bank kept its +2.9% Y/Y forecast for Thai 2022 GDP growth unchanged from the April projection but warned against the country's exposure to elevated oil prices and supply chain disruptions. The World Bank will hold a webinar on its Thailand Economic Monitor later today.
- Thailand's manufacturing production unexpectedly shrank in May. The -2.11% Y/Y print not only missed the median estimate (+1.55%) but was also accompanied by a downward revision to the previous reading. Only one of the 10 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected contraction.
- BoP data are set to steal the limelight today. Consensus forecast for BoP current account balance is -$3.0bn in a Bloomberg survey. We are also awaiting the release of customs trade data in the coming days.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.