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Balder Equity Lower On Results, Cash Curve Unchanged

REAL ESTATE

Balder (BALDB SS) results this morning, equity -3% vs. flat Euro markets and cash curve (BBB-rated) broadly unchanged, after some good performance.


  • The equity is selling off largely due to miss on 4Q23 earnings (loss of SEK4.77bn vs. profit expected c.SEK0.8bn) which is all due to revaluations i.e. non-cash. FCF from operations was over SEK1bn, mgmt has around halved capex (with guidance that FY24 will be halved again).
  • Gross cash is similar to Sep-23 and available liquidity is over SEK18bn, which looks like enough to cover the coming three years’ of refinancing events.
  • At Sep-23, mgmt did indicate it was on a good trajectory to get S&P to upgrade the rating outlook (from negative, which it went to in Nov-22) and reiterated the direction of travel on today’s call. Balder’s curve is meaningfully tighter YTD (near-100bp in places) and better over the last week.
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