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JGB TECHS

(Z1) Bearish Trend Condition

AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS

(Z1) Bearish Price Sequence

AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS

(Z1) Off Recent Highs

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS

(Z1)‌‌ Support Appears Exposed

NEW ZEALAND
NEW ZEALAND: Bank desk views on today's NZIER QSBO:
- ANZ: Biz sentiment improved a little in Q4. Nonetheless, businesses are
pessimistic, with the econ cycle looking tired. Experienced activity, which
tends to be a good barometer of GDP growth, perked up a little in Q4, but at
face value is consistent with soft annual growth of 2-2.5% in the short term.
Data are consistent with our view that the econ is not performing well enough to
achieve a durable lift in inflation. We see the RBNZ cutting the OCR late this
year to give the economy a pick-me-up.
- ASB: Q4 activity remained reasonably soft. Our view is that econ activity &
biz confidence will recover from early '19. While forward-looking responses from
the QSBO shared this optimism, some of the underlying detail casts some shadow
of doubt.
- Westpac: There was some improvement in biz confidence in Q4, although
confidence remains at relatively low levels. Concern about confidence has
dissipated somewhat over recent months as the level of biz confidence has
stabilised, albeit at low levels.
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com