Bank desk views on today's NZIER........>

NEW ZEALAND: Bank desk views on today's NZIER QSBO:

- ANZ: Biz sentiment improved a little in Q4. Nonetheless, businesses are

pessimistic, with the econ cycle looking tired. Experienced activity, which

tends to be a good barometer of GDP growth, perked up a little in Q4, but at

face value is consistent with soft annual growth of 2-2.5% in the short term.

Data are consistent with our view that the econ is not performing well enough to

achieve a durable lift in inflation. We see the RBNZ cutting the OCR late this

year to give the economy a pick-me-up.

- ASB: Q4 activity remained reasonably soft. Our view is that econ activity &

biz confidence will recover from early '19. While forward-looking responses from

the QSBO shared this optimism, some of the underlying detail casts some shadow

of doubt.

- Westpac: There was some improvement in biz confidence in Q4, although

confidence remains at relatively low levels. Concern about confidence has

dissipated somewhat over recent months as the level of biz confidence has

stabilised, albeit at low levels.