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Free AccessBank Of America Highlights Link Between VIX & KRW Foreign Outflows
- The won has weakened around 4.12% since the start of June as the nation battles with the latest wave of coronavirus. Some of the weakness is attributed to foreign outflows. Bank of America notes the link between the VIX and outflows: global volatility, as proxy by the VIX Index, has spiked on a number of days. Although the VIX has structurally moved lower throughout 2021, we find that the change, rather than the outright level, in the VIX matters for net portfolio flows to Korea." They find "there is a strong inverse correlation between upward movement in the VIX and portfolio outflows in Korea."
- They note "an unexpected increase in US real rates will lead to a rise in market uncertainty, which in turn will spill over into portfolio outflows from Korea and result in a higher USDKRW. With the US real 10y re-approaching its YTD low, at -100bp, overall market liquidity remains flushed, and this should help contain market volatility (using the VIX index as the proxy) and be supportive for portfolio risks, Korean inflows and a lower USDKRW. We expect this condition to remain until the Fed clarifies on the timing of its tapering."
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.