Free Trial

BanRep Review - Analyst Views

COLOMBIA
  • Goldman Sachs: - The policy statement and post meeting press conference were more dovish than GS were anticipating: the MPC remains on a data dependent mode and there was no indication of potential near-term lift-off (contrary to what is priced in the curve).
  • Overall, they were expecting the MPC to show significantly more concern with the fiscal dynamics, the dimmed outlook for fiscal consolidation, widening current account deficit, and unsteady political and social environment.
  • In their assessment, a gradual reduction of the degree of monetary accommodation is still warranted.
  • JPMorgan: - Had thought that BanRep might signal more clearly that it was laying the groundwork to start tightening monetary policy. The board deflected questions on the regional trend by pointing to "anchored" inflation expectations.
  • A decidedly neutral bias would seem to take July's meeting out of play for a hike; JPM continue to forecast lift-off in September, raising the policy rate to 2.5% by year end, at which point they would pause to wait out the elections cycle. They then see 100bp more tightening in 2H22 taking the policy rate to 3.5%.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.