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Banxico Expected To Start Easing Cycle With 25bp Cut

MEXICO
  • Most analysts are expecting Banxico to cut the overnight rate by 25bp to 11.00% at 1900GMT(1500ET). Declining inflation, the high level of the real ex-ante policy rate and the ongoing resilience of the Mexican peso all suggest conditions have been met to ease the monetary policy stance. Today’s weak retail sales data, which showed a surprise 0.6% m/m decline in sales in January, combined with a moderately dovish Fed, also support the case for a move later. However, the cautious rhetoric from some committee members highlight that the decision is by no means set in stone and increases the likelihood of a split decision.
    • The full MNI preview with analyst views is here.
  • The latest Citibanamex survey revealed that analysts still expect the policy rate to end the year at 9.5%, falling to 7.5% by end-2025. The GDP estimate for this year was also unchanged at 2.4%, but the estimate for 2025 was reduced by 10bp to 1.8%. CPI inflation is seen at 4.1% at the end of this year and 3.71% at end-2025.
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