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Barclays: Consensus View For Payrolls, Still See Two More FOMC Hikes

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Barclays expect nonfarm payroll employment gains to slow to 225k in June, a pace that would still be viewed by the FOMC as too elevated to be consistent with an easing of the labor market tightness.
  • The unemployment rate should decline a tenth to 3.6%, with the participation rate remaining constant, whilst AHE is seen maintaining its 0.3% M/M pace.
  • Under these labor market conditions (generating income growth and support consumption), Barclays believe that the Fed will remain skeptical about the softening in inflation and concerned that core inflation might firm again.
  • They expect the Fed to remain on track to raise the fed funds rate by 25bp in July and by another 25bp in September, bringing the target range to 5.50-5.75%. This is in line with communication from Fed Chair Powell Sintra conference and Bank of Spain appearances.
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