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Barclays, JPMorgan Pull Rate Cut Starts Forward Post-FOMC

FED

Barclays has revised its Fed rate cut call to reflect the dovish message from yesterday's FOMC communications, and this week's soft CPI/PPI inflation data.

  • Following the meeting, they now see three rate cuts in 2024, starting in June, with reductions at every other meeting thereafter. Pre FOMC their view was: First cut in Dec 2024, 25bp at every other meeting in 2025, eg 100bp of cuts.
  • "Cuts could begin sooner if monthly inflation prints continue to come in softer than our forecasts. However, we place upside risk to our projected rate path as the recent easing in financial conditions may boost growth and ultimately result in stalling disinflation."
JPMorgan has also shifted its first cut date forward: "With the recent better news on PCE inflation, and with the Committee signaling that further inflation progress will be sufficient for easier policy, we now look for a first cut in June (previously July) and for a target range 125bp lower by year end."
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