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Reporting on key macro data at the time of release.
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- CPI increased 0.46% m/m, bringing y/y inflation to 6.24%. Inflation does not seem to have reached its peak yet; Barclays think the pass-through to domestic prices from FX depreciation can continue to push it higher.
- The political situation remains highly unstable, which is likely to make capital outflows and pressure on the PEN persist.
- Peru are potentially heading towards its sixth president in four years. The government’s inconsistent policymaking is undermining its own stability. While the opposition is starting to see an impeachment of President Castillo as an alternative, a potential replacement may not be a solution for Peru’s deep political crisis and would signal a faster deterioration of the country’s outlook. His removal from office could lead to multiple iterations in the presidency without a clear, stable outcome.
- In these conditions, the BCRP will likely maintain its 50bp per month tightening pace, including at this week’s meeting, with risks biased towards having to accelerate if the situation further deteriorates.