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Barclays Pull Forward First Fed Cut To March From June

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • On Friday, Barclays shifted their call for the first Fed rate cut from June to March.
  • They cite “available data point to another soft core PCE price inflation print in December, despite firmness in the CPI, once again highlighting the tension between these measures.” They estimate core PCE at 0.17% M/M.
  • They now expect the Fed to “initiate an every-other-meeting cutting cycle in March” leaving a year-end target range of 4.25-4.5%.
  • “With the first cut two meetings earlier than before, we now anticipate eight cuts, in total, through end-2025.”

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