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Barkin On Dec FOMC Deliberations

FED
Following from the above, Richmond Fed's Barkin ('24 voter) offered a top-down overview of the December FOMC meeting ahead of today's minutes.
  • “The FOMC’s December meeting got a lot of attention. We acknowledged the progress on inflation and explicitly reaffirmed our willingness to hike if necessary.”
  • “We also submitted our quarterly forecasts, which showed that FOMC participants expect inflation to settle without additional hikes. In that context — in which our forecasts are right and inflation does in fact continue to settle — most of us forecasted rate normalization to begin sometime this year. But the range of estimates was pretty wide, from no cuts to as many as six.”
  • “I would caution you to focus less on the rate path and more on the flight path — is inflation continuing its descent and is the broader economy continuing to fly smoothly? Conviction on both questions will determine the pace and timing of any changes in rates.”
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