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Barkin On Dec FOMC Deliberations

FED
Following from the above, Richmond Fed's Barkin ('24 voter) offered a top-down overview of the December FOMC meeting ahead of today's minutes.
  • “The FOMC’s December meeting got a lot of attention. We acknowledged the progress on inflation and explicitly reaffirmed our willingness to hike if necessary.”
  • “We also submitted our quarterly forecasts, which showed that FOMC participants expect inflation to settle without additional hikes. In that context — in which our forecasts are right and inflation does in fact continue to settle — most of us forecasted rate normalization to begin sometime this year. But the range of estimates was pretty wide, from no cuts to as many as six.”
  • “I would caution you to focus less on the rate path and more on the flight path — is inflation continuing its descent and is the broader economy continuing to fly smoothly? Conviction on both questions will determine the pace and timing of any changes in rates.”
Energy BulletsCommoditiesFOMC Calendar Market News
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