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BAX Curve Consolidates Substantial BoC Rally

CANADA
  • BA yields are now almost unchanged on the day, with little lasting impetus from GDP coming in modestly stronger than expected.
  • Yields only climb 0.5-1bps across Dec’22-Sep’23 and 2-3bps further out into 2024, which does little to change the significant rally this week having wiped 25bp off the implied terminal policy rate to a little under 4.25%.
  • Larger moves have been seen further along the curve though, with 1H24 yields 35bp lower than prior to the BoC decision on Wednesday, driving renewed inversion in the curve with 50bp of cuts implied for 2023.
  • The Fed on Nov 2 is clearly in focus along with key business surveys but locally, Governor Macklem and Sr Dep Gov Rogers also speak to the Senate at 1830ET on Nov 1.

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