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BAX Futures Modestly Flatter After Significant Steepening, GDP Eyed

CANADA
  • BAX futures have seen the day’s rally extend further and despite most recently pulling off highs, see the front BAM3 +0.04, Dec’23 +0.08 and Jun’24 +0.09.
  • The BAM3/Z3 spread has fallen 4bps to +8bps but aside from recent trading days is otherwise at highs since very early Mar 2022, and still a sharp increase from -30/40bps up until mid-May.
  • Markets look to the hawkish aspect of the BoCs conditional pause with OIS pricing roughly 1/3 odds of a hike on Jun 7 and a hike fully priced to come later.
  • First though, we see Q1 GDP tomorrow with consensus 2.5%/BoC 2.3% annualized after Q4’s surprisingly soft 0.0%. With the Bank estimating potential growth at 2.3% in 2023, it would mark a quarter with zero progress in demand softening to allow supply to move in better balance.

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