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BAX Yields Continue Higher For Longer Push

CANADA
  • BAX futures continue last week’s higher rates for longer push, albeit under lower volumes today whilst waiting a new catalyst in tomorrow’s US CPI.
  • Front Mar’23 implied yields are little changed before +2.5bp for the Jun’23, +4bp for Dec’23 and +5bp for Jun’24.
  • 2023 rate cuts per the BAH3/Z3 spread are now down to 15bps, having been almost 30bps before Friday’s bumper employment growth, 65bps before US payrolls and a low of 90bps in mid-Jan.
  • Larger rate cuts remain in 1H24 (BAZ3/M4 still -0.82) but 1H24 implied yields are nevertheless 75bps higher than after the BoC’s conditional pause guidance from the Jan 25 decision.

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