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BAX Yields Drift Higher But Steep Inversion Remains

CANADA
  • BAX futures mirror the climb higher in global yields today, with front contracts rising 4bps and largest increases in late 2023/early 2024 contracts with BAH4 +7bps.
  • The modestly larger increase in longer end yields closes the gap back to levels after last week’s BoC but it doesn’t materially change the shape of the curve: it rises steeply to a 4% yield at year-end - crudely implying a policy rate close to 3.5% vs 2.5% currently - before yields slide 50bps through 2023.
  • Broadly similar initial path shown by BoC-dated OIS, with a 69bp hike priced for Sep 7 and just about surpassing 3.5% at the Oct 26 meeting with 106bps of hikes.

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