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BAX Yields Further Unwind 2023 Inversion

CANADA
  • BAX front yields have softened on the collection of weaker US data earlier today, with BAZ2 -5bps and pulling back from newly touched highs for the cycle.
  • Contracts further out have proven more resilient though, re-firming to unwind a large portion of the earlier decline with BAZ3 unchanged on the day.
  • It continues to price solid hikes ahead, with a crudely implied policy rate seen peaking close to 3.75% in the Dec’22 from a current 2.5%, but the main takeaway has been a continued decline in rate cut expectations to -27.5bps of cuts through 2023 judging by BAZ2/BAZ3 – this is contrast to a slight re-widening in Eurodollars today.


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