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BCB Announces Spot USD Auction As USDBRL Approaches 5.7542

BRAZIL
  • The Brazilian real may find some support at today’s open following the announcement that the Brazil central bank will auction $500m of dollar spot from 7:30am to 7:40am ET.
  • Prices will be based on the so-called PTAX rate, which is the official fixing for the currency. Analysts have noted these dollar spot auctions can often coincide with a specific outflow linked to the settlement of assets in local custody and therefore the BRL support may be hard to sustain, although the bounce in risk certainly improves the backdrop.
  • On the topside, 5.7542, the Oct 22 high, remains a key resistance. A clear break would refocus attention on the top of a bull channel drawn from the Jun 25 low. The line intersects at 5.8714. Initial firm support lies at 5.5184, Dec 9 low.
  • Data:
  • Tax collection is expected to reach 157.3b reais in November, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey, after hitting about 178.7b reais in the previous month. Economy Ministry releases numbers at 1730GMT/1230ET on its website and hosts a press conference around 30 minutes later.
    • Current account data will also be released tomorrow before Thursday’s mid-month IPCA inflation print where the median surveyed estimate has annual inflation decelerating to +10.45%.
  • Brazil lawmakers continue to struggle to reach a deal to vote the 2022 budget bill; although there’s expectation it may be voted today, Valor reported there are still 11 points of disagreement that need to be solved before the bill clears the first commission and heads to a joint vote at Lower House and the Senate. (BBG)
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