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BCB Comfortable With Market Consensus On SELIC Rate, Retail Sales Data Due

BRAZIL
  • Brazil's Central Bank seems "comfortable" with a market consensus that sees the official Selic rate ending the year at 9.00%, the former head of the BCB’s Department of Economic Research Marcelo Kfoury told MNI on Tuesday, after the release of January meeting minutes. Yesterday’s BCB Focus survey also showed that economists expect the SELIC rate to end 2025 at 8.5%, while inflation is expected to decline to 3.81% this year and 3.5% next.
  • In the calendar today, Governor Campos Neto grants a lecture at an event in Sao Paolo, while Finance Minister Haddad will also meet with central bank members (both 1300GMT).
  • On the data front, it’s a busy day in the calendar, with the focus on December retail sales data at 1200GMT(0700ET). Sales are expected to have fallen by 0.1% m/m (vs. +0.1% prior), taking the annual rate of growth up to 3.0% y/y, from 2.2%. January trade data will also be published at 1800GMT.
    • Dec. Retail Sales YoY, est. 3.0%, prior 2.2%
    • Dec. Retail Sales MoM, est. -0.1%, prior 0.1%
    • Dec. Retail Sales Broad YoY, est. 3.1%, prior 4.3%
    • Dec. Retail Sales Broad MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 1.3%
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