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BCB Selic Rate Decision Due, With Focus On Potential Guidance Adjustment

BRAZIL
  • Having cleared the key breakout point around the 5.00 handle on Monday and trading as high as 5.0548 yesterday, USDBRL ended the session around the 5.03 mark. For USDBRL, bullish conditions remain intact and a turn higher would highlight a clear break of the key pivot and signal scope for a test of 5.0609, 61.8% of the Oct 6 - Dec 27 bear leg. Clearance of this retracement would open 5.0983, the Oct 20 ‘23 high.
  • Today, attention will be on FOMC interest rate decision at 1800GMT(1400ET), followed by the BCB where the Copom is widely expected to deliver another 50bp Selic rate cut to 10.75% (2130GMT/1730ET). The focus there will be on the BCB’s forward guidance, with market participants alert for any tweaks to the statement that provide clues on whether the easing pace could be adjusted in the coming meetings.
    • The full MNI preview and analyst views are here.
  • In other news, O Globo reported that the government is expected to freeze around 5bn reais in the ministries’ budget, citing a government member familiar with the matter. The amount will be announced on Friday, when the Finance and Planning Ministries releases the report on income and expenses for the first two months of the year.
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