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CHILE: BCCh Expected To Extend Rate Pause Next Week

CHILE
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
  • USDCLP has edged lower in early trade Friday, with the pair around 933, as copper holds near a 10-month high. USDCLP remains in a bear-mode condition, with sights on 921.59, the 76.4% retracement of the upleg between Sep 27 ‘24 - Jan 3. Initial resistance is at 943.89, the 20-day EMA.
  • The data calendar remains light again today, with attention turning to Q4 GDP and current account and the latest BCCh traders survey on Tuesday. These data come ahead of next Friday’s BCCh monetary policy meeting, when the central bank is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 5.00% for a second successive meeting.
  • This week’s BCCh economist survey also confirmed expectations for an extended interest rate pause, with analysts still seeing the policy rate at 5.00% in five months and only expecting one 25bp cut to 4.75% by year-end.
  • In other news, Codelco has warned that Q1 production will be impacted by maintenance work, with output flat to slightly weaker y/y. However, Chairman Pacheco still expects to meet the company’s internal quarterly target and expects production to rise 5% this year, with an even bigger increase projected for 2026.
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  • USDCLP has edged lower in early trade Friday, with the pair around 933, as copper holds near a 10-month high. USDCLP remains in a bear-mode condition, with sights on 921.59, the 76.4% retracement of the upleg between Sep 27 ‘24 - Jan 3. Initial resistance is at 943.89, the 20-day EMA.
  • The data calendar remains light again today, with attention turning to Q4 GDP and current account and the latest BCCh traders survey on Tuesday. These data come ahead of next Friday’s BCCh monetary policy meeting, when the central bank is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 5.00% for a second successive meeting.
  • This week’s BCCh economist survey also confirmed expectations for an extended interest rate pause, with analysts still seeing the policy rate at 5.00% in five months and only expecting one 25bp cut to 4.75% by year-end.
  • In other news, Codelco has warned that Q1 production will be impacted by maintenance work, with output flat to slightly weaker y/y. However, Chairman Pacheco still expects to meet the company’s internal quarterly target and expects production to rise 5% this year, with an even bigger increase projected for 2026.