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BCRP Decision This Week, JPMorgan Pencil In New Hike

  • The majority of analysts expect the BCRP to continue hiking by 25bp on Thursday, bringing the reference rate to 8.00%. Just one analyst within the Bloomberg survey is calling for an unchanged decision.
  • The key worry appears to be whether the social protests in Peru & state of emergency, despite being a supply-side shock, may have negatively pressured inflation expectations higher.
  • JPMorgan have pencilled in a new 25bp hike, driving the policy rate to 8.0% this week. Assuming protests dissipate, JPM believe the central bank will find room to ease monetary conditions starting in June, though more gradually than they had thought previously.
  • JPM expect the policy rate to decline to 6.25% by year-end and to 5.25% by 2Q24.

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