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BCRP Decision Thursday, Expected On Hold

PERU
  • Peru’s central bank are unanimously expected to keep rates unchanged on Thursday, leaving the reference rate at 7.75%. In the March statement the BCRP reiterated that “a downward trend in year-on-year inflation is forecast since March, with a return to the target range in the fourth quarter of this year.”
    • March CPI, did indeed fall from 8.65% to 8.40% although this was notably above the 8.00% surveyed median estimate.
    • March Lima unemployment rate and February economic activity data are both scheduled for release this coming Saturday.
  • JPMorgan note that the policy rate is expected stable through the end of 2Q23. By then, JPM expect the pre-conditions required to reduce the real ex-ante rate to be fulfilled, offering the BCRP the possibility to ease monetary conditions by June (-50bp). The main risk is associated to a new pension fund withdrawal, what may prompt a delay of the easing cycle. The policy rate is expected to converge to 5.5% by December 2023, and 4.0% by 2Q24.
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